The Azimuth Project
Birmingham GHG emissions (Rev #5, changes)

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In 2009 Birmingham emitted around 5.8MtC02e (equivalence of GHG to millions of tonnes of C02) - 1% of total UK emissions.

Birmingham has the highest domestic and the second highest transport CO2 emissions (after Leeds) in the UK.

This is said to be in line with Birmingham’s size.

CO2 missions emissions per capita are 5.5tonnes, below the UK average (which is? TBD) and in-line with other major cities.

Figure 1: Emissions for Birmingham 2010 by end use and fuel.

(in ktC02 (not equivalents?TBD) units)

Emissions for Birmingham 2010 by end use and fuel.

(in ktC02)

Commercial: 2364

  • Electricity: 1340
  • Gas: 705
  • Other fuels: 230
  • Large industrial facilities: 89

Domestic buildings: 2134

  • Gas: 1226
  • Electricity: 875
  • Other fuels: 33

Transport: 1460

  • Petroleum: 1450

Total 2010 : 5969 5969ktC02 ktC02

The chart below shows the emissions reductions that could be expected to occur in Birmingham as a result of national policy, in particular through the decarbonisation of the national electricity grid, and technological change. Birmingham’s householders, businesses and government will have an important part to play in delivering these savings, but they are presented here as a baseline against which Birmingham can plan the additional in-city effort required.

In 1990 emissions were 6312 ktCO2 and 5578 in 2010 (a 12% reduction).

Estimates to 2026 are:

  • 2013: ~5040
  • 2014: ~5020
  • 2026: 3627 (-42%)

So we reduce by 2641 ktCO2 over 26 years from 2005 to 2026 or 1906 ktCO2 over 16 years from 2010 to 2026.

fv = pv(1+i)^n

i = (6313-3672)/6313

= 0.4183

Back calculation:

3672((1+0.0213)26) = 6351.690121829307 (cf. 6313).

The national Carbon Plan outlines an emissions trajectory that will reduce emissions by 50% by 2027. The biggest reductions will take place in the power sector, but alongside this significant deployments of renewable heat and energyefficiency measures are required in the next 20 years. And in transport, an ambitious uptake of low carbon vehicles is needed.

Birmingham’s current emissions target, 60% by 2026, exceeds the trajectory set out in the (national ed.) Carbon Plan. However, early progress on building stock energy efficiency and low carbon heating and transport will put the city on the right pathway to achieve its ambition, and subsequent longer-term emissions reductions.

Figure 2 shows the effect of reductions in emissions from decarbonisation of the national grid and technological change.

Figure 2 suggests that an emissions reduction in the region of 40% reductions could be plausible as a result of UK-wide energy system changes between 1990 and 2026.

The chart claims that 3627 is 42% less than 5578 (1 say 34.9767%). This implies that the city needs to save 18% of emissions on top of the national effort. I say 26% is needed.

To get to 60% reduction by 2026:

  • 55780.6 = 3346.8 ktCO2 total is allowable
  • 5578-(55780.6) = 2231.2 ktCO2 will have to be avoided.

Emissions from large industrial facilities and from other fuels have not been included and consequently some variance with Birmingham’s actual emissions can be expected.

The only real data for Birmingham’s emissions were collected between 2005 and 2010.

  • 2005 : 6313
  • 2008 : ~5500
  • 2010 : 5578 (-12%)

Better check:

(6313-5578)100/6313 = 11.6426%.

Heavy industry is ignored.

Population 1.3m (1.66% of the total UK population)

National projections and local building rates give a percentage of UK population as 1.49-1.66% in 2026.