The Azimuth Project
Jan Galkowski

Jan Galkowski

Readers may want to check out my blog, too.

I am an amateur quantitative ecologist now specializing in longitudinal studies of bryophytes, lichens, and club mosses (Lycopodium), ultimately interested in their phenology. I live in Westwood, MA, with my wife, Claire, in a nearly zero Carbon-using home. I began my formal study of bryophytes and kin when I retired a 43 year career as engineer, statistician, and data scientist in November 2020.

I have been an active student of environmental sciences, particularly the physics, oceanography, and biology of climate change, for decades. Interest in mitigation of climate disruption has also drawn me to a study of energy systems and policy, as well as advocacy. I am currently studying 100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything, a great textbook by Professor Mark Z Jacobson, which I hope to work into a curriculum I can teach online in Summer 2021 or 2022. I also study other proposals for achieving zero emissions, and sometimes present to and advise local organizations and committees about emissions, and potential climate impacts.

I am also active in social and political activities relating to the environment, partly through the Green Congregation Committee at the Unitarian Universalist congregation to which I belong, First Parish in Needham, MA, and partly as a staunch advocate for distributed, locally owned solar energy.

You can learn more about me here. I am a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Statistical Association, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, the New England Statistical Society, and three organizations at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the Associates, the 1930 Society, and its Fye Society.

I have also recently taken up sailing again, primarily with my older son, Dave.

Blog Articles

Warming slowdown? (part 1 of 2)” The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. Also available at the Azimuth Project wiki.

Warming slowdown? (part 2 of 2)” The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such.).

Bayesian inversion of commingled tonnage of municipal solid waste to isolate components” Bayesian inversion to recover latent components in mixtures is a standard technique, with wide application. Yet, apparently, it is not well known. Frequentist methods for doing this are known as algorithms for blind source separation.

How predictive is the party affiliation of a governor of a U.S. state upon COVID-19 performance”.

New COVID-19 incidence in the United States as AR(1) processes”.

COVID-19 statistics, a caveat : Sources of data matter”.

Political and demographic associations with changes in COVID-19 rates at the tails”.

Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths”.

Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties”.

Areas of Interest

  • Bryophyte ecology via longitudinal imaging and automated analysis of images.
  • Phenology of bryophytes as indication of climate change. Accordingly, participating in and cooperation with the U.S. National Phenology Network.
  • Developing techniques for field microphotography of bryophytes and their community dynamics.
  • Statistical and data engineering support to citizen science efforts, after Kosmala, Wiggins, Swanson, and Simmons, or the Ocean Data Labs.
  • Applying propensity scoring and other methods of formal causal inference to problems in bryophyte botany and ecology.
  • Statistical applications in quantitative ecology and population biology, particularly examining dynamics of species invasions, and diffusion throughout an ecosystem.
  • Insights regarding inland hydrology and the implications of enhanced burst rainfall due to climate change for inland flooding.
  • Less formally, zero Carbon energy policy, technologies, engineering, and advocacy.


Daily consumption of electricity from Westwood, MA, senior high school for 366 days, clustered using symmetrized network compression divergence and standard hierarchical clustering

What I’m Reading


category: members